Bernard Guetta: Facing the Kremlin, Inconsistency Is No Longer an Option2022-11-28 | Political initiatives, Geopolitical analysis
Everything is making Vladimir Putin the “public enemy number one”. He has become such because, in addition to having attacked Ukraine, destroying it and martyring its population by depriving them of electricity, water and heating, this man is also guilty of two other crimes, both of which threaten world peace.
The first is leading Russia into a break-up. Many will think, and not only in Ukraine, that a break-up of Russia would deprive the bear of its claws, and that there would be no reason to regret it, but when the war, Western sanctions and the decline in gas and oil exports will have further damaged the economy of the world’s largest country, the scale of the disaster will become apparent.
At that point, the social anger and despair of families without fathers, sons or husbands will turn against the Kremlin and plunge the entire Federation into a violent political crisis. While the Russian army will continue to be stuck in Ukraine, while Central Asia will be freeing itself from Moscow definitely, while Russia will lose on all fronts, the contenders to succeed Vladimir Putin will tear each other apart, the regional leaders will hear the call of a personal destiny, and more than one of the peoples of the Caucasus, the Far North or the Far East will think that the time for independence has come. In the unknown of a new hazard, civil war will tear a nuclear power apart. Jihadist movements will find new grounds for action and China and Turkey will inevitably be tempted to intervene in the immense chaos that the European Union will see emerging on its borders.
The second of Vladimir Putin’s other crimes is to have already considerably damaged the world economy by reducing the volume of trade. All continents are affected by this. As long as this war does not end, they will suffer more and more, and social and political tensions will multiply in every corner of the globe.
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