Bernard Guetta: The Most Perilous Year in the Post-war Era

2022-12-12 | Political initiatives, Geopolitical analysis

So many unknowns are adding up that the next year is unpredictable. Will there be a Brutus to change the deal in Moscow? Could a defeat for Recep Erdogan in the June elections usher in a new era in the Middle East and across the Mediterranean? Will the Iranians overcome their theocracy, whose support would then be lacking for both Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad? Could inflation spiral out of control in Europe and cause enough social unrest to weaken the EU states?

One could extend this list of questions by also asking whether the entry of an anti-Arab far-right to the Israeli government could reignite the oldest of conflicts and how Xi Jinping will try to regain control now that protests have forced him to relax containment measures, but in politics there is no point in chanting with Doris Day: “Que sera, sera, Whatever will be, will be”.

Whatever will be, will be, but beyond this obvious fact, how can we try to prevent a chain of tensions from eventually leading to a third world conflict when this is not a hypothesis but a real possibility?

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