International Centre for Ukrainian Victory: ENDGAME SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE

2023-09-27 | Expert publications, Geopolitical analysis

In the aftermath of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022 and the initial Ukrainian counteroffensive of summer and autumn 2022, the first half of 2023 was defined by a static frontline. The Russian military is unable to achieve decisive battlefield success despite all the efforts and involvement of the Wagner Group.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine – not fully transitioned to NATO-standard doctrine and equipment – hold the line in a relentless attritional fight attempting to build up decisive combat power for successive counteroffensive action. The choices driven by NATO members and the Russian Federation before the end of this summer fighting period will define the security landscape far beyond Ukraine across the entirety of Eurasia. ICUV with partners from Euro-Atlantic think tanks have forecast several scenarios and modelled possible outcomes.

Variables were refined based on:

  • Strategic interests and likely policy choices
  • Group psychology
  • DIME (diplomacy, information, military, economic) potential
  • Economic consequences
  • Historical data

The scenarios suggest what policy options Moscow would choose and what best response strategies NATO and EU allies could follow.

The conclusions of ICUV and partner think tanks were aligned with opinion gathering among independent respondents with backgrounds in defense, finance, and sociology.

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