Razumkov Centre: Russian-Ukrainian war: developments and prospects: Summary of the Analytical report

2023-01-30 | Expert publications

With its aggression upon Ukraine and ultimatum-like demands on NATO and the West in general, Russia has once again demonstrated its historic aggressiveness against the USA, Europe, and democracy as such. It views the export of corruption, selective granting of temporary preferences on its market, enhancement of the dependence of the European countries on Russian resources, strong anti-Western propaganda as mechanisms of weakening and splitting the Western unity.

The success of the Ukrainian defence forces on the front, demonstration of the invincible spirit of Ukrainian society, strong official and popular diplomacy of Ukraine in the Western countries have strongly influenced the attitude of the Western politicians to the developments in Ukraine and the nature of military, technical and humanitarian assistance from the Western partners. Such assistance became one of the main factors of Ukraine’s durability in its war with Russia.

Russia still has and uses its numerical superiority over Ukraine and hopes for a success of an offensive campaign, probably planned for the end of winter — beginning of spring, 2023, or transition to a «war of attrition».

Despite positive changes in assistance to Ukraine and pressure on Russia, Western politicians do not stop discussing the subject of negotiations with Putin. This not only undermines the Western unity, limits assistance to Ukraine for «curbing» the international aggressor and terrorist, but also gives the Kremlin hope to escape the defeat, strengthens its feeling of impunity and encourages it to be even more aggressive.

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