Geopolitical analysis

Olivier Dupuis: President Macron’s Ukrainian arithmetic

What is behind President Macron’s refusal to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine? Is it a case of late conversion? After all, France’s president...

WEBINAR: Western Fears of Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine: When will the ‘pro-Ukraine’ coalition become an ‘anti-Putin’ coalition?

Allow me cordially invite you to an online discussion titled “Western Fears of Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine: When will the ‘pro-Ukraine’ coalition become an ‘anti-Putin’...

Roland Freudenstein: Troops in Ukraine? France-Germany spat plays into Putin’s hands

Whoever doubts that Europe is in danger of an ominous divergence on Russia and Ukraine should take a look at the forced smiles of the...

Bernard Guetta: Now Is the Time to Stop Putin

Three words have been enough. By saying that “nothing was excluded” in order to prevent Putin from winning in Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron made it clear...

Bernard Guetta: The Reinvention of the Union

This is it. It’s done, finally done. France, Germany and the whole of the European Union, with the exception of Hungary, have finally realised that...

Bernard Guetta: The Post-war Era Is Over

There are some embarrassing truths. With less than six months to go before the European elections, when all the parties in the Member States are...

Andrius Kubilius: 2024 And Beyond: A Rationally Optimistic War Scenario

The year 2023 ended in Lithuania with  apocalyptic predictions that everything is bad – Ukraine is losing, it does not know how to fight, Russia...

CEPA: Bringing Ukraine Into NATO Without World War III

By Ambassador Kurt Volker. NATO’s policy on Ukraine is inadvertently encouraging Putin to continue the war.  It is time for a change. The alliance’s position thus...

Leonid Gozman: Why Peace with Putin Is Impossible – Russia’s Three Wars

Hopes for Ukraine’s relatively quick victory have not materialized and the war between Russia and Ukraine has dragged on (though this is certainly not the...

Stockholm Free World Forum: A Strategy for Sustainable Peace in Europe

By Anders Åslund and Andrius Kubilius. The Absence of Western Strategy on Ukraine Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan are ready to declare defeat for Ukraine,...

Bernard Guetta: Four European Forces for Four European Objectives

It is quite simple: a fire is burning. There is the fire of global warming. There is the fire in Ukraine. There is the fire...

RUSI: The Strategic Implications of Ukraine’s Strikes in the Black Sea

By Dr Dumitru Minzarari. Ukraine’s recent long-range strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol and its ships triggered discussions about the related...

David J. Kramer, John Herbst, William Taylor: In Ukraine, Peace Now Means War Later

Ukraine’s war aims are designed to guarantee a lasting peace, not a reprieve before another Russian attack. Before Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of...

Andrius Kubilius: On the Reality of War

We all know that this year Ukraine is finding it harder to liberate its occupied territories than last year. Increasingly, there are warnings (from the...

Bernard Guetta: The Temptation to Give Up

It is all over, I am telling you. Finished, done with: Putin has won, we hear from all sides and, false as it may be,...

Bernard Guetta: Three Europes in One: Tomorrow’s Union Will Not Be the Same as Today’s

We have barely heard it. From Ukraine to the Middle East, the international situation has deteriorated to such an extent that we hardly noticed that...

N. Loiseau for Euractiv: Putin could be ‘geopolitical winner’ of Israel-Palestine war

With all eyes now on the Middle East, the growing disinterest in Russia’s war in Ukraine is playing right into Putin’s hands, wrote French Renew...

Razumkov Centre: Challenges for the Next Stage of Globalisation: The Factor of Ukraine

By Vasyl Yurchyshyn. We argue that the fight of Ukraine for independence against Russian aggression is the principal event of the modern stage of globalisation....

Bernard Guetta: Two Remedies for the Face-off Between Two Worlds

With two worlds facing each other, it looks like the Cold War, but it is much more worrying than the Cold War was. On one...

International Centre for Ukrainian Victory: ENDGAME SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIA’S WAR IN UKRAINE

In the aftermath of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022 and the initial Ukrainian counteroffensive of summer and autumn 2022, the first half of...

Andrius Kubilius. Differences In The West: Do You Or Do You Not Believe That Russia Can Become A Democracy In The Future?

Andrius Kubilius, former PM, MEP, initiator of  the “United for Ukraine” network When we observe and analyse the West’s support for Ukraine, we sometimes see...

Andrius Kubilius. Russia’s war against Ukraine: what would F.D.Roosevelt and Winston Churchill say about the West’s aims in this war?

Andrius Kubilius, former PM, MEP, initiator of  the “United for Ukraine” network (The Lithuanian version of the article was published on 17.08.2023) I wrote earlier that...

Andrius Kubilius. Western Reality and Our Responsibility

Andrius Kubilius, former PM, MEP, initiator of  the “United for Ukraine” network (The Lithuanian version of the article was published on 11.08.2023)   Immediately after...

Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation commentary: Decoding Prigozhin’s rebellion

By Petro Burkovskyi. The Wagner Group’s armed rebellion has displayed little evidence of being a successful challenge to Putin’s regime, but it has created a strong argument...

Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation commentary: What is needed is for Russia to withdraw, not a ‘de-escalation on both sides’

By Olexiy Haran. The visit of African leaders to Ukraine and Russia is an important step that shows the African continent is trying to play...

Michael Emerson, CEPS: Tsar Nicholas I’s Crimean War and Putin’s in Ukraine – Plus ça change

With President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement on 11 May that more time is needed before Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive can begin, everyone is implicitly being invited also to...

Roland Freudenstein: Russia’s war and the Global South – a way forward for the West

Since March 2022, there has been a recurrent phenomenon in the corridors of Brussels: Whenever Western Europeans feel cornered by Poles or Balts who criticize...

Bernard Guetta: The Russia of the 200

There should have been cameras, microphones, a director. The fear of provocation and manipulation should not have prevented the 200 or so Russian journalists gathered...

Razumkov Centre: PRC’s Great Game for Global Leadership: Historical Roots, Modern Tools, Future Consequences

By Volodymyr Omelchenko. A historical excursion into the foundations of China’s foreign policy In order to understand the modern foreign policy of the PRC, one...

Bernard Guetta: The Franco-Polish Locomotive

THE FRANCO-POLISH LOCOMOTIVE 27-03-2023 As for the Atlantic Alliance, we know what he did to it. By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin achieved the feat of...

Razumkov Centre: Economic aspects of the visit [of Xi’s visit to Moscow]

By Vasyl Yurchyshyn. Of course, the Russian visit of the Chinese leader was mainly connected with the possible expansion of military support for the aggressor....

Book “The Reconstruction, Reform, and Accession of Ukraine”, co-authored by Dr. Anders Åslund and Andrius Kubilius

Dr. Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum and an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. He is a leading specialist on economic...

Doug Klain: op-ed “Don’t let Ukraine become just another partisan divide”

Americans support Ukraine. It was a fact long before Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine last year that support for the nation’s resistance against Kremlin aggression...

Nathalie Loiseau on France TV debate: Ukraine : la France est-elle désarmée face aux conséquences du conflit ukrainien ? [in French]

Débat : Ukraine / La France est-elle désarmée face aux conséquences du conflit ukrainien ?  Invités : – Jean-Marie Guéhenno, diplomate – Hélène Blanc, politologue – Elsa Vidal, journaliste – Nathalie...

Franceinfo: La faute à l’europe ? (with N. Loiseau)

Episode of “La faute à l’europe ?” with MEP Nathalie Loiseau. Listen to the conversation here.

Bernard Guetta: The Reasons for the Ukrainian Optimism

What if they were right? What if it wasn’t just the need to believe in the victory which made the Ukrainian leaders say that their...

Bernard Guetta: Zelensky’s real harvest

One would, of course, prefer that the tanks were already delivered and the jets on their way. Thus, Ukraine could win victories faster, forcing the...

Interview of N. Loiseau for Le Journal du Dimanche (in French and English)

MEP Nathalie Loiseau’s interview for a French publication Le Journal du Dimanche. Read the full interview in French or in English.

France TV débat : l’Europe en guerre contre la Russie ? (MEP Nathalie Loiseau and others)

Dans cette seconde partie de l’émission, l’animateur et ses chroniqueurs proposent un débat autour d’une thématique avec des acteurs de la société civile, des intellectuels,...

France 24: podcast episode with experts “Zelensky on tour: Is Europe ready for the next phase of Ukraine war?”

Guests of the podcast: Samantha DE BENDERN, Associate Fellow, Chatham House Maria ZOLKINA, Head of Regional Security and Conflict Studies, Democratic Initiatives Foundation Georges KUZMANOVIC, President of...

Bernard Guetta: The Korean Scenario

Only the short term is clear. Within a few weeks and by Easter at the latest, the Russian army shall try to offer Vladimir Putin...

Bernard Guetta: The Day After (Response to Pierre Lellouche and some others)

(Response to Pierre Lellouche and some others) These fears, they are not to be rejected but to be taken into account. One is that by...

V. Milov: Future Scenarios for Russia: An Optimistic, but Realistic Outlook

The current dictatorship in Moscow does not reflect a deliberate choice of the Russian people. It is the result of a swift and coordinated power...

Prof. Olexiy Haran and Petro Burkovskyi: Fighting for Freedom: Ukrainian Assessment of the Implications of the Russian Invasion for South Asia

By Prof. Olexiy Haran (Kyiv Mohyla University) and Petro Burkovskyi i (Executive Director, Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv). Since the 2000s, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy towards...

Andrius Kubilius: Smart Russian officers will decide the fate of Russia?

The 2022 year came to an end. A year that will be marked in the history of the world with the title of “Year of...

Bernard Guetta: Four Despots in Danger

These three words do not leave my lips because, really, “Happy New Year”? How can we wish each other a happy year after such a...

Andrius Kubilius: What does the West want?

The fundamental question of the future course of this war is, paradoxically, not about Ukraine but rather about Russia. It is about the West’s attitude...

Andrius Kubilius: Our “Russian” psychological complexes

Latvians had revoked the broadcast licence for the Russian opposition TV channel Dozhd. Before that, the channel had been expelled from Moscow by Putin. It...

Razumkov Centre: Thoughts of a dead man

By Mykhailo Mischenko. Analysts debate if there is anything that can change the public opinion in Russia about the so-called “special military operation” (which Putin...

Sergey Lagodinsky: Germany must lead the way for a special tribunal

By Sergey Lagodinsky. Last week on F.A.Z. Einspruch Volker Ullrich argued for a special tribunal for the Russianaggression against Ukraine. From the Greens’ point of...

Olivier Dupuis: Europe struggles to face a new reality

By Olivier Dupuis. Nine months after the start of the new Russian offensive in Ukraine, many citizens of old Europe still find it hard to...

Bernard Guetta: The Most Perilous Year in the Post-war Era

So many unknowns are adding up that the next year is unpredictable. Will there be a Brutus to change the deal in Moscow? Could a...

Kristi Raik: Don’t Be Afraid of a Russian Collapse

Kristi Raik for the Foreign Policy. In August 1991, then-U.S. President George H.W. Bush was in Kyiv to counsel Ukrainians against statehood. Only weeks before Ukraine...

Bernard Guetta: The Fall of the Tsars

Freedom leads 3-0 against dictatorships and how can we not rejoice over this? How can we not think of the Iranians, the Ukrainians, the Chinese,...

ICDS: Building European Security Against Russia – A View from Estonia

By Kristi Raik and Martin Hurt. The future trajectory of Western-Russian relations will depend on domestic developments in Russia. In the foreseeable future, Russia is...

Bernard Guetta: Facing the Kremlin, Inconsistency Is No Longer an Option

Everything is making Vladimir Putin the “public enemy number one”. He has become such because, in addition to having attacked Ukraine, destroying it and martyring...

GLOBSEC: Strategic Responsibility: How a stronger EU in a reinforced alliance can make security on our continent more sustainable

Alena Kudzko and Roland Freudenstein. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has proven NATO’s existential value and has set the parameters regarding what must be done to...

Solo Talk with Gerald Knaus: “The Swedish EU presidency as a historic opportunity for Ukraine and how to get German support”

On 28 November United for Ukraine Network held a SOLO Talk event with Gerald Knaus, Chairman of the European Stability Initiative (ESI), entitled “The Swedish...

Bernard Guetta: Putin and the Ones Who Are Always Wrong

It is now official. Russia is in recession while the rouble is once again plummeting, but none of those who were explaining with a great...

Razumkov Centre: Signs of a new world order?

The issues of strategic choice, formation of a new world order (both political and economic), search for rational and productive forms of cooperation are among...

Razumkov Centre: Russia: living in a “negative reality”

Presumably, people always strive for a better life. All political ideologies since the American and French revolutions have emphasised the right of man to be...

Razumkov Centre: Ukraine’s Role and Place in the Future European and Euro-Atlantic Security Systems

Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine has changed the picture of the world, substantially accelerating crisis trends in the system of international relations established after the...

A. Gattolin: speech on Countering Russian and Chinese Authoritarian Narratives about the War and the Crises

 “The Next Frontline – Facing Food Security, Energy, and Migration Crises in the EMEA Region,” meeting held in Rome, Italy on October 12 and 13,...

Razumkov Centre: Risks of losing US support? Minimal

The headlines this week are, of course, about the results of the midterm elections in the USA, and with that — economic, financial, and military...

Bernard Guetta: Panic at the Chancellery

This is not a quarrel. Nor is it just one of those frequent moments in the Franco-German relationship when everything seizes up because the president...

Bernard Guetta: The American Moment

Op-ed by MEP Bernard Guetta. They are all wrong. Those who rejoice at seeing the United States return to Europe as a result of the...

Andrius Kubilius: The Tragedy of Russia

The European continent is facing a severe geopolitical crisis caused by Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. This has also revealed a phenomenon worthy of being...

Bernard Guetta: The Decadence of Dictatorships

By Bernard Guetta. Now, right now, it is time to get out of this absurdity that is disproved by everything. It is not democracy that...

Bernard Guetta: After the War

By Bernard Guetta. Between blindness and intelligence, between revenge and reconciliation, needless to say that Ukraine and its allies will tend towards the right choice,...

Atlantic Council: How the Ukraine war has affected the MENA region’s pursuit of governance reform

By Alissa Pavia and Lorenzo Fruganti. The geopolitical transformations of the last decade, combined with knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine, are impacting Middle...

Atlantic Council: The EU’s Russia visa ban debate reveals the bloc’s new power center

By Petr Tůma. In its response to the crisis provoked by Russia, the European Union (EU) has often broken with the past by overcoming its...

Atlantic Council: Six months, twenty-three lessons: what the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine

When it was first launched in the wee hours of February 24, the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was supposed to last just a few...

Andrius Kubilius: War: will the geopolitical crisis make the EU stronger?

Politicians and experts often repeat a well-known refrain during crises: every crisis must be used by a country or an international organisation to make it...

Atlantic Council: How Turkey can play a more constructive role in Russia’s war on Ukraine

By Yevgeniya Gaber. During the early days of the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, Turkey earned well-deserved praise from both Kyiv and its Western allies for...

Razumkov Centre: Silver bullet for the Russian Federation and Crimea. What awaits Ukraine in the coming months?

By Oleksiy Melnyk. The geography of our international support is expanding. Judging by the number of countries that joined the Crimean Platform forum a week...

Razumkov Centre: Transformation of accents

By Vasyl Yurchyshyn. As we already noted in our previous publications, the struggle of Ukraine speeded up the formation of two civilisational groups — democratic...

Atlantic Council: The war in Ukraine is an opportunity to upgrade the transatlantic architecture. Here’s how

By Ira Straus. Six months in, Russia’s war on Ukraine has prompted unprecedented unity among the transatlantic allies. This cohesion has been admirable, but it should...

Razumkov Centre: A Renewed Global Bipolarity?

By Vasyl Yurchyshyn. Globalisation, accelerated since early 1990s, collapse of the world socialist system, economic growth of emerging countries seemed to have destroyed the bipolar...

Razumkov Centre: A new Ukraine in the post-war world

By Mykola Sunhurovskyi. Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has significantly changed the picture of the world and will bring tectonic shifts in the perception of...

Razumkov Centre: The “Soviet way” will finally die out only now

By Mykhailo Mischenko. The official Russian social mythology, which is based on the idea of ​​”returning everything” and authoritarianism, in its development “stumbled over Ukraine”...

Razumkov Centre: Forward into the past, or Some features of the new foreign policy concept of the Russian Federation

By Mykhailo Pashkov. In the beginning of August, “Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn” magazine published a programme article “Lessons of History and Image of the Future: Reflections on...

Razumkov Centre: Confrontation of two big economies: Ukrainian implications

By Vasyl Yurchyshyn. The author analyses current interaction and rivalry between the two big Asian and global economies — Chinese and Japanese — also from...

Razumkov Centre: Taiwan is not Ukraine

By Vasyl Yurchyshyn. Probably, the most common phrase of recent weeks was “Taiwan is not Ukraine”, necessarily followed by the comparison of scenarios of the...

Atlantic Council: Climbing the escalation ladder in Ukraine: A menu of options for the West 

By Francis Shin, Damir Marusic, Tyson Wetzel. We have assembled a list of possible policy responses the West ought to consider according to the approximate...

Atlantic Council: Grain drain: Why Turkey can’t afford to ignore Russian grain smuggling from Ukraine

By Yevgeniya Gaber. The world’s attention turned to Turkey last week as it hosted a signing ceremony of a long-awaited United Nations (UN)-backed deal in...

Atlantic Council: Proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter

By C. Anthony Pfaff. Whether the United States and its NATO partners are in a textbook proxy relationship with Ukraine matters less than the potential...

Europe’s geopolitical choice: to win the war or to save Putin’s face?

2 June 2022, Brussels Today, Ukrainians defend not only their homes and their land; they are dying for the values, on which the EU is...

Atlantic Council: How can the US and NATO help bring about Russia’s ‘strategic failure’ in Ukraine?

By Connor McPartland. With Ukraine having repelled Russian forces near Kyiv, the Kremlin’s war of aggression has entered a new phase: a more limited offensive...

Atlantic Council: Peace in Europe ‘will not exist’ as long as Putin is in power, says Mikhail Khodorkovsky

By Katherine Walla. According to exiled Russian businessman and philanthropist Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the West has misunderstood the war in Ukraine from the start. The biggest...

Atlantic Council: Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to be ‘a big Israel.’ Here’s a road map.  

By Daniel B. Shapiro. But what does he mean by “a big Israel”? With a population more than four times smaller, and vastly less territory,...

Atlantic Council: Central Europe leads the way in backing Ukraine. Here’s its game plan for what’s next

By Petr Tůma. As the West scrambles to maintain its united front against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union (EU) member states of Central...

Atlantic Council: FAST THINKING: What China stands to gain—and lose—by wading into the Ukraine war

How far will these autocrats take their “no limits” friendship? As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine grinds on, the Kremlin has reportedly reached...

Atlantic Council: Will Germany’s geopolitical awakening last?

ByRoderick Kefferpütz. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken Berlin out of a longtime geopolitical stupor and shattered the notion of reasoning with the dictator in the...

Atlantic Council: Not just Ukraine: Putin wants to remake the world

By Ana Palacio. Experts have been cautioning of a new Cold War for months. Russia’s military offensive marks the launch of an era vastly different...

Atlantic Council: Transatlantic Telegram: Whatever happens next in Ukraine, a new European security order is emerging

By Ben Judah, and Damir Marusic.   Read the full publication.